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Major economies including SA stall Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth despite regional resilience – World Bank
Major economies including SA stall Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth despite regional resilience – World Bank
By: Nii Ammui Fio | 3 mins read
Sub-Saharan Africa is on a path to moderate economic recovery, but the World Bank warns that weak performance in Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa is weighing down the region’s overall progress.
In its April 2025 Africa Pulse report, the Bretton Woods institution forecasts the region’s GDP will edge up from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, followed by a projected rise to 4.3% in 2026 and 2027. However, this broader recovery masks significant disparities between countries.
The report highlights that when Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa are excluded, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 4.6% in 2025, with further acceleration to 5.7% in 2026–27. Still, the outlook is fragile.
“This outlook is subject to heightened risks arising from global policy uncertainty,” the report notes.
The World Bank attributes the anticipated growth momentum to easing inflation and favourable financial conditions that are expected to drive consumer demand and private sector investment.
“As inflation cools down and converges to targets, and (global and domestic) financial conditions remain accommodative, it is expected that household consumption and investment will support the region’s growth acceleration.”
Meanwhile, government expenditure is likely to have limited influence on growth. Fiscal space remains tight as many African governments continue to grapple with debt management and competing developmental needs.
“The contribution of government consumption will remain modest as the public sector continues to balance revenues and expenditures while managing painful trade-offs between servicing the debt burden and investing in social and physical infrastructure.”
The report highlights that services will remain the most robust contributor to economic activity in the medium term, particularly through recoveries in ICT, finance, and tourism. Agriculture is also set for a rebound, helped by better weather, infrastructure, and access to technology.
“Agriculture is expected to pick up from its lows in 2023–24, thanks to improved climate conditions, infrastructure, and technology.”
Nonetheless, downside risks remain prominent. The World Bank outlines a volatile external environment marked by potential disruptions in global trade, geopolitical realignments, reduced donor support, and increasing climate-related shocks.
“Despite the baseline forecasts of growth acceleration in the region during 2025–27, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Sub-Saharan African economies will navigate an uncertain landscape amid greater policy uncertainty, which may lead to changes in the world trade order; ongoing (regional and national) geopolitical shifts that may affect commodity prices, disrupt international relations, and yield further fragmentation; reduced foreign aid budgets worldwide; and challenges posed by extreme weather events.”
On a per capita basis, the report paints a less optimistic picture. It estimates that average real income in 2025 will still fall short—by about 2%—of its 2015 peak. This sluggish recovery is projected to translate into only a modest reduction in extreme poverty.
“The per capita growth acceleration expected in 2025–27, at an annual average rate of 1.8 percent, will contribute to a modest decline in the poverty rate.”
The poverty rate, measured at $2.15 per day in 2017 PPP terms, is projected to peak at 43.9% in 2025, declining slightly to 43.2% by 2027. The World Bank attributes the slow pace of poverty reduction to inadequate investments in sectors that directly benefit the poor, persistent inflationary effects, and shrinking global aid.
Despite signs of regional resilience, the World Bank’s findings stress the importance of targeted economic reforms, climate preparedness, and inclusive investments to ensure Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth becomes both sustainable and equitable.
