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Pan-African survey predicts 53.1% lead for Ken Agyapong,39% for Dr Bawumia ahead of primaries
Pan-African survey predicts 53.1% lead for Ken Agyapong,39% for Dr Bawumia ahead of primaries
By: Abigail | 4 mins read
In late September, Global Info Analytics predicted that Dr Bawumia, the former Vice President and flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), would lead in the primaries against his competitors, particularly former Assin Central Member of Parliament Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
However, in barely two weeks, the Pan-African civil society organisation, Sanity Africa, which recently predicted the victory of Bernard Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the tightly contested Akwatia by-election, has released its Phase Two survey on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries.
According to the organisation's recent survey, there has been a shift in the landscape as the party gears up towards the January 2026 primaries.
The abridged October report suggests that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, popularly known as Ken, has strengthened his lead among NPP delegates, commanding 53.1% of voting intentions, which represents a 1.7 % point increase from the Phase One survey conducted in July.
The former Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), trails with 39.0%, indicating a 3.2-point drop. Behind them are Dr Bryan Acheampong at 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (rising from 0.3%).
The results of the survey carried out between July and October 2025 came from a sample of 15,000 delegates from an estimated 218,000 in the expanded voter album across all 276 constituencies.
It boasts a 99% confidence level with a ±5% margin of error. At the regional level, Ken Agyapong sits atop as a leading candidate in ten regions out of Ghana’s 16, including strongholds such as Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%).
His biggest contender, Dr Bawumia, on the other hand, still holds his lead in the Northern sector, thus with an advantage in the rest of the six regions. He leads in the North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). Competitive races are unfolding in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where margins remain slim.
Notable shifts include Dr Bawumia widening his lead in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%).
Dr Bryan Acheampong registered significant gains in his home region of Eastern, rising to 21.7%. Sanity Africa noted that these shifts reflect evolving delegate sentiments influenced by campaign strategies and regional dynamics.
The organisation emphasised that while Ken Agyapong currently has the upper hand, the contest remains fluid.
Endorsements, messaging, and campaign strategies, it said, are expected to play critical roles in shaping the outcome.
With Phase Three of the survey scheduled for release in January 2026, Sanity Africa concluded that Ken may be the one to beat, but the race is far from over.
A recent Global InfoAnalytics tracking poll has named former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the people’s preferred candidate to lead the New Patriotic Party (NPP) into the 2028 general election against his closest contender, former Member of Parliament (MP) for Assin Central, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
The poll suggests that 57% of voters prefer Dr Bawumia as the party’s presidential candidate, while 29% picked Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
The other contenders, i.e., former Minister of Education, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum, secured 6%, Minister of Food and Agriculture, Dr Bryan Acheampong, polled 5%, while former NPP General Secretary, Kwabena Agyapong, registered 3%.
In the critical swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western, Dr Bawumia also leads decisively with 57%, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 32%. Dr Adutwum and Dr Acheampong each secured 4%, while Kwabena Agyapong obtained 3%.
The survey further indicates that in a potential runoff between Dr Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bawumia would extend his lead with 62% against Agyapong’s 38%.
Among NPP delegates, Dr Bawumia remains firmly ahead with 47%, while Kennedy Agyapong trails with 17%. Dr Acheampong and Dr Adutwum received 3% and 1% respectively, with Kwabena Agyapong also at 1%. However, 27% of delegates remain undecided, and 4% declined to disclose their preference.
In a runoff scenario within the delegates’ poll, Dr Bawumia commands 49%, compared to Kennedy Agyapong’s 19%, with 27% undecided and 5% declining to disclose.
The vetting committee of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) on Tuesday, September 23, assessed the former Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and four other persons contesting to lead the party into the 2028 elections.
The four others who have expressed interest in contesting include Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum (former Education Minister and Member of Parliament for Bosomtwe), Bryan Acheampong (Member of Parliament for Abetifi), former party General Secretary Kwabena Agyepong, and former Assin Central MP Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.
On Tuesday, July 29, the NPP opened nominations for its 2028 flagbearer position. Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the party’s 2024 flagbearer and former Vice President, Kennedy Agyapong, Kwabena Agyepong, and Dr. Osei Adutwum have all picked up nomination forms.
Former General Secretary of the NPP, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, officially filed his nomination forms on Tuesday, August 26. Party executives received the nomination forms from former Assin Central MP and presidential hopeful Kennedy Ohene Agyapong on Wednesday, August 27.
Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum filed his nomination forms for the NPP flagbearer race on Thursday, August 28, 2025.
In the meantime, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has received strong backing from 268 former Metropolitan, Municipal, and District Chief Executives (MMDCEs), who paid him a visit in June to pledge their support.Former Energy Minister and running mate of the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) 2024 presidential candidate, Dr Matthew Opoku Prempeh, has decided to throw his weight behind Dr Mahamudu Bawumia ahead of the party's presidential primaries in 2026.
In an interview on Asempa FM on August 26, the former minister noted that he remains grateful to the former Vice President who decided to make him his running mate despite the many individuals who advised him to do otherwise. According to Dr Opoku Prempeh, popularly known as Napo, Dr Bawumia was engaged countless times by some bigwigs in the party to pick someone else to be his running mate.
“I am not ungrateful. Look at this big party and all the people who were praying for the running mate slot; he ignored all of them and made me his running mate.
